Television ‘super media’ status strengthens
The professional services firm Deloitte has just published its 2011 technology, media and telecommunications predictions report which focuses on major trends in the next 12-18 months that are likely to have significant long-term impacts on companies in TMT and other industries. Amongst a wide range of topics, they address the strengthening of TV’s status as a “super media”, the 30 second spot’s enduring strength as DTRs proliferate and also the power of live and scheduled television in a section titled “push beats pull in the battle for the television viewer”.
Television’s “super media” status strengthens
“In 2011, Deloitte predicts television will solidify its status as the current super media, defying some commentators’ prophecies of imminent obsolescence1. Viewers around the world will watch 140 billion more hours of television, revenues from pay TV in the BRIC2 countries will rise by 20 percent3; worldwide TV advertising will increase by $10 billion, and 40 million new viewers will be added; TV chefs will sell tens of millions more cookbooks than their non-televised peers4; TV shows will be the most common conversation topic around the world and the subject of more than a billion tweets5. In short, television will likely continue to command a growing share of the world’s attention and pocketbooks.”
“Television’s strength as an advertising medium is likely to be once again proven by a second year of solid growth and a fifth consecutive year of increased share of advertising revenue”
“Deloitte also expects television to grow its share of audience attention, despite competition from many other existing and emerging distractions – both online and offline.”
“Technological innovation has so far seemed to bolster the television sector; for example, DVRs and online TV content have tended to boost overall viewing.”
“As for other forms of media, television could prove to be a significant enabler – both directly (through advertising) and indirectly (as a source of new ideas, celebrities and content). Other media sectors should look for creative ways that television could help sell their products.”
Push beats pull in the battle for the television viewer
“In 2011, Deloitte predicts that despite the sale of tens of millions of television sets that offer a form of built-in search capability for television programming, the vast majority of viewing will be delivered on a traditional “pushed” basis, in other words the schedules determined by channel planners. And a growing number of selections may be pushed via recommendation engines built into the television or set top box. However the “pulling” of television content by viewers beyond the selection of a television channel is likely to remain an exceptional behaviour.”
“Adoption of program searching is likely to remain modest, largely due to a lack of need.”
“The biggest barrier might be the time and attention required to select content. Having choices is wonderful, but choosing can be a chore.”
“For consumers buying Internet-ready televisions that support advanced applications, a major barrier to search adoption is likely to be the required peripherals and user interface.”
“Television is – and will likely remain – more than just a piece of technology or portal to a library of content. For many households, it is a focal point for family gatherings. For many individuals, it is the principal topic of water cooler conversations with friends and colleagues. In 2011, mountains of newsprint and terabytes of online chatter will likely continue to focus on TV shows, pushing and cajoling people into what to watch. And the best search algorithm in the world is not going to change that behavior. At least not in 2011.”
DVRs proliferate! The 30 second spot doesn’t die!
“Deloitte predicts that digital video recorder (DVR) penetration in two large markets will exceed 50 percent of TV households by year end 20111; but also predicts that TV advertising will be almost entirely unaffected despite that level of penetration. While DVRs provide the technological capacity to skip ads, the majority of DVR owners are likely to continue watching the vast majority of their television live. TV ad rates may go up or may go down for various reasons this year but DVR penetration probably won’t be one of them.”
“If a DVR allows a viewer to watch both his or her simultaneously-broadcast favourite shows or if it means that going out does not missing out on the latest episode of a preferred soap opera, this is good for the broadcaster, for the program maker and for the advertiser.”
What else is in the report?
There’s lots of fascinating stuff in the report, which of course included technology and telecoms. You’ll find sections on smartphones and tablets, eGovernment, online regulation, battery technology, hydrogen as an energy source, live music, games going online, and lots more. To download the full version from the Deloitte website, click here.